Technical Analysis v. Fundamental Analysis: Difference?

Technical Analysis v. Fundamental Analysis

Technical Analysis operates on the theory that market prices at any given point in time reflect all known factors affecting supply and demand for a particular market. Consequently, technical analysis focuses, not on evaluating those factors directly, but on an analysis of market prices themselves. This approach theorize that a detailed analysis of, among other things, actual daily, weekly and monthly price fluctuations is the most effective means of attempting to capitalize on the future course of price movements. Technical strategies generally utilize a series of mathematical measurements and calculations designed to monitor market activity. Trading decisions are based on signals generated by charts, manual calculations, computers or their combinations.

Fundamental Analysis is based on the study of factors external to the trading markets which affect the supply and demand of a particular market. It is in stark contrast to technical analysis since it focuses, not on price but on factors like weather, government policies, domestic and foreign political and economic events and changing trade prospects. Fundamental analysis theorizes that by monitoring relevant supply and demand factors for a particular market, a state of current or potential disequilibrium of market conditions may be identified before the state has been reflected in the price level of that market. Fundamental analysis assumes that markets are imperfect, that information is not instantaneously assimilated or disseminated and that econometric models can be constructed to generate equilibrium prices, which may indicate that current prices are inconsistent with underlying economic conditions, and will, accordingly, change in the future.

Another definition of Fundamental Analysis:

Fundamental Analysis is an approach to analyzing market behavior that stresses the study of underlying factors of supply and demand. It is done in the belief that such analysis will enable one to profit by being able to anticipate price trends. A Fundamentalist is a market observer-and/or participant who relies principally on Supply/demand considerations in price forecasting. Components of Fundamental Analysis:

Supply:

• Weather
• Acres planted to a crop
• Government Programs
• USDA Reports

Demand:

• USDA Reports
• Domestic usage - Feed & processing
• Value of the Dollar
• Actions of Other Countries
• Exports
• Transportation

How do Trend Follower's view fundamentals for trading? Not favorably...

What is Forex fundamental analysis?

The forex fundamental analyst identifies and measures factors that determine the intrinsic value of a financial instrument, such as the general economic and political environment, and including any that affect supply and demand for the underlying product or service. If there is a decrease in supply but the level of demand remains the same, then there will be an increase in market prices. An increase in supply produces the opposite effect.

For example, an analyst for a given currency studies the supply and demand for the country's currency, products or services (Merchandise Trade); its management quality and government policies; its historic and forecasted performance; its future plans and the most important for the shorter term, all the economic indicators.

From this data, the analyst constructs a model to determine the current and forecasted value of a currency against an other. The basic idea is that unmatched increases in supply tend to depress the currency value, while unmatched increases in demand tend to increase the currency value. Once the analyst estimates intrinsic value, he compares it to the current exchange rate and decides whether the currency ought to rise or fall.

One difficulty with fundamental analysis is accurately measuring the relationships among the variables. Necessarily, the analyst must make estimates based on experience. In addition, the forex markets tend to anticipate events and discount them in the currency value in advance. Finally, serving as both a disadvantage and even as an advantage (depending upon the timing), the markets often take time to recognise that exchange rates are out of line with value.

FOREX Glossary

Here are some of the most common terms used in FOREX trading. Ask Price – Sometimes called the Offer Price, this is the market price for traders to buy currencies. Ask Prices are shown on the right side of a quote – e.g. EUR/USD 1.1965 / 68 – means that one euro can be bought for 1.1968 UD dollars.

Bar Chart – A type of chart used in Technical Analysis. Each time division on the chart is displayed as a vertical bar which show the following information – the top of the bar is the high price, the bottom of the bar is the low price, the horizontal line on the left of the bar shows the opening price and the horizontal line on the right of bar shows the closing price.

Base Currency – is the first currency in a currency pair. A quote shows how much the base currency is worth in the quote (second) currency. For example, in the quote - USD/JPY 112.13 – US dollars are the base currency, with 1 US dollar being worth 112.13 Japanese yen.

Bid Price – is the price a trader can sell currencies. The Bid Price is shown on the left side of a quote - e.g. EUR/USD 1.1965 / 68 – means that one euro can be sold for 1.1965 UD dollars.

Bid/Ask Spread – is the difference between the bid price and the ask price in any currency quotation. The spread represents the broker's fee, and varies from broker to broker.

Broker – the intermediary between buyer and seller. Most FOREX brokers are associated with large financial institutions and earn money by setting a spread between bid and ask prices.

Candlestick Chart - A type of chart used in Technical Analysis. Each time division on the chart is displayed as a candlestick – a red or green vertical bar with extensions above and below the candlestick body. The top of the extension shows the highest price for the chart division and the bottom of the extension shows the lowest price. Red candlesticks indicate a lower closing price than opening price, and green candlesticks indicate the price is rising.

Cross Currency – A currency pair that does not include US dollars – e.g. EUR/GBP.

Currency Pair – Two currencies involved in a FOREX transaction – e.g. EUR/USD.

Economic Indicator – A statistical report issued by governments or academic institutions indicating economic conditions within a country.

First In First Out (FIFO) – refers to the order open orders are liquidated. The first orders to be liquidated are the first that were opened.

Foreign Exchange (FOREX, FX) – Simultaneously buying one currency and selling another.

Fundamental Analysis – Analysis of political and economic conditions that can affect currency prices.

Leverage or Margin – The ratio of the value of a transaction to the required deposit. A common margin for FOREX trading is 100:1 – you can trade currency worth 100 times the amount of your deposit.

Limit Order – An order to buy or sell when the price reaches a specified level.

Lot – The size of a FOREX transaction. Standard lots are worth about 100,000 US dollars.

Major Currency – The Euro, Swiss franc, British pound, and the Japanese yen are the major currencies.

Minor Currency – The Canadian dollar, the Australian dollar, and the New Zealand dollar are the minor currencies.

One Cancels the Other (OCO) – Two orders placed simultaneously with instructions to cancel the second order on execution of the first.

Open Position – An active trade that has not been closed.

Pips or Points – The smallest unit a currency can be traded in.

Quote Currency – The second currency in a currency pair. In the currency pair USD/EUR the euro is the quote currency.

Rollover – Extending the settlement time of spot deals to the current delivery date. The cost of rollover is calculated using swap points based on interest rate differentials.

Technical Analysis – Analysis of historical market data to predict future movements in the market.

Tick – The minimum change in price.

Transaction Cost – The cost of a FOREX transaction – typically the spread between bid and ask prices.

Volatility – A statistical measure indicating the tendency of sharp price movements within a period of time.